the mean transit time is useless, the 90th percentile is what melts your pack
the mean transit time is useless, the 90th percentile is what melts your pack. Making the case below, and I expect to lose some of it in the comments.
Ordered from the warehouse in Poland instead of origin and the whole customs question disappeared. 16 days, door to door.
Clearance took three days and the carrier took nine. I had been blaming the wrong half for two years.
The rigid outer with no rattle in it was the thing that told me most about that supplier, before I had tested anything.
Not medical advice, obviously, and nothing here is approved for human use. One person with a spreadsheet.
best — the order this archive was captured in
Where the time actually goes, which I got wrong for two years.
Total transit is first mile, international leg, customs clearance and last mile. I had been attributing everything to the international leg because that is the part with the exotic-sounding name.
When I finally logged the stages separately, the international leg was the most consistent part of the whole journey. The variance was in clearance and in the domestic delivery at my end — neither of which the supplier controls. That reframed how I read every lane report on this board, and it is why the table separates the stages.
Asked for the month rather than removing. Without it the report cannot be compared to anything.
Where the time actually goes, which I got wrong for two years.
Disagreeing with this bit: a single slow shipment does not move a lane, it joins the distribution.
Origin, destination, carrier and month?
the lane is the unit of analysis, not the supplier
Same lane, four orders, 15 to 15 days, all four within a couple of days of the quote. That consistency is the actual finding.
Push back: comparing a July transit with a February one on the same lane is not a comparison.
Asked CPC which lines they hold regionally before ordering and got a straight list back. Changed what I ordered and when.
Four observations is not a distribution. The lane tables here only became predictive once individual routes had a dozen or more reports behind them.
Kept a spreadsheet of quoted versus actual across a year. The quote held; the variance was all in the last mile.
Split one order across two months on purpose to compare summer and winter. Four days apart, same carrier, same route.
customs clearance time is not carrier time and they get conflated
ask which lines are actually held in the regional warehouse
a quoted lead time you can hold them to is worth more than a fast one you cannot
Where did the time actually go — international leg, clearance, or last mile?
two identical orders a week apart is the cheapest experiment available
- 1Kept a spreadsheet of quoted versus actual across a year. The quote held;…7 comments in this branch · started by u/milan_chukwu