[Lane Report] Tianjin → Canada, 14 days, two of three vials cracked
Tianjin → Canada, 14 days, two of three vials cracked. I have gone back and forth on this for months.
14 days — those are the numbers, and they are the ones I am willing to defend.
Four observations is not a distribution. The lane tables here only became predictive once individual routes had a dozen or more reports behind them.
Same lane, four orders, 6 to 12 days, all four within a couple of days of the quote. That consistency is the actual finding.
Research-use-only material is not approved for human use and nothing here should be read as a recommendation to use it.
best — the order this archive was captured in
A lane is an origin, a destination, a carrier and a season. Change any one and the distribution changes, which is why supplier-level shipping averages are close to meaningless.
Why this board reports by lane and not by supplier.
Two members ordering from the same operation, in the same month, can see completely different transit times because they are on different routes with different carriers and different clearance points. Averaging them produces a supplier-level number that predicts nothing for either of them.
A lane — origin, destination, carrier, month — is the smallest thing that behaves consistently enough to be worth measuring. Once a route has a dozen reports behind it the median is genuinely useful, and that is what the tables on the source pages are built from.
declared value and description are the shipper’s decision, ask what they use
regional stock changes everything about transit
What lead time were you quoted at checkout?
origin, destination, carrier, month — post all four or the report is noise
That is a packaging observation, not a transit observation. Worth posting, worth separating.
Right, and the last mile is where my variance has always come from, not the international leg.
How many shipments does your figure cover?
the lane is the unit of analysis, not the supplier
Ordered from the warehouse in Ireland instead of origin and the whole customs question disappeared. 14 days, door to door.
Split one order across two months on purpose to compare summer and winter. Four days apart, same carrier, same route.
two identical orders a week apart is the cheapest experiment available
Small fix — shipped from the regional warehouse, not from origin, which is why the number looks unusual.
rigid outer packaging is the cheapest quality signal there is
Where did the time actually go — international leg, clearance, or last mile?
Ordered from the warehouse in Ireland instead of origin and the whole customs question disappeared.
Disagreeing with this bit: a single slow shipment does not move a lane, it joins the distribution.
I would not read a single slow shipment as a lane change. Post it and let the median move if it is real.
Push back: comparing a July transit with a February one on the same lane is not a comparison.
Posted my first lane report here without the month and got asked for it. Fair, and the table is better for the fussiness.
[deleted]
Agreed. Reporting by lane rather than by supplier is what made the tables here actually predictive.
Same. WWB quoted 15 days on my lane and it landed at 15, which is exactly what you want from a quote.
Clearance took three days and the carrier took nine. I had been blaming the wrong half for two years.
a lane with four reports is not yet a lane
a quoted lead time you can hold them to is worth more than a fast one you cannot
the median is more useful than the fastest anybody ever got
- 1Ordered from the warehouse in Ireland instead of origin and the whole…9 comments in this branch · started by u/runa_cabrera