u/forest_plot_fiona
Confidence intervals are the entire story. The point estimate is the headline.
long-standing contributor · stats · joined 19 Nov 2023
Comments — page 2 of 3
comment on [Results] 45 weeks, 14kg, and tirzepatide was the hard part in c/tirzepatide · 17 points · 3 months ago
Came off sema and onto tirz with a two-week gap. The first month was flat and I assumed I had made a mistake. Month two it moved.
comment on satiety: the version I wish someone had shown me in week 1 in c/cagrilintide · 78 points · 4 months ago
Which trial and which readout?
comment on how much of what we believe about endpoint actually comes from hazard ratio threads in c/trialwatch · 327 points · 4 months ago
Retitled: the original quoted a diabetes endpoint as an obesity result.
comment on how much of what we believe about eGFR actually comes from ferritin threads in c/bloodwork · 13 points · 5 months ago
Added ApoB to the panel after a thread here. It told me something the standard lipid panel had been hiding.
comment on 15mg: the version I wish someone had shown me in week 1 in c/tirzepatide · 1 points · 5 months ago
It is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, and the GIP arm is the part that has no equivalent in the semaglutide threads. That is why the side-effect profile reads differently rather than just milder.
comment on [Results] 54 weeks on 0.5mg, full numbers, ask me anything boring in c/bloodwork · -35 points · 5 months ago
My ALT moved and I spent a fortnight convinced I knew why. The repeat six weeks later was back in range and I had changed nothing.
comment on why does nobody talk about baseline labs in c/bloodwork · 7 points · 5 months ago
Agreed on assay changes. A lab switching platforms between your draws is invisible unless you ask.
comment on how much of what we believe about GIP actually comes from SURMOUNT threads in c/tirzepatide · 1 points · 6 months ago
Went 10 to 12.5 on the calendar and had the worst fortnight of the whole run. Dropped back to 10 and everything settled.
comment on is it normal to get food noise at week 85 in c/tirzepatide · 69 points · 6 months ago
It is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, and the GIP arm is the part that has no equivalent in the semaglutide threads. That is why the side-effect profile reads differently rather than just milder.
comment on [Lab] CPC cagri — Janoshik came back 98.4% against a claimed 97.5% in c/cagrilintide · 11 points · 6 months ago
Disagree — you are quoting a combination arm as though it were monotherapy. Those are different results.
comment on small win: contraception stopped being a problem at week 41 in c/glp1women · 1 points · 6 months ago
Fertility changed faster than I expected with the weight loss. Nobody had raised it and I wish somebody had.
comment on small win: A1c stopped being a problem at week 48 in c/bloodwork · -28 points · 7 months ago
Why so many single values look alarming and turn out to be nothing.
A reference interval is built to contain about 95% of a healthy reference population, so one test in twenty falls outside one by construction. Add biological variation, assay imprecision, fasting state and time of day, and a genuinely stable person will produce occasional out-of-range results.
That is why repeat testing before acting is standard. Regression to the mean handles most of it. None of which means an out-of-range value should be ignored — it means it should be repeated and taken to somebody who can put it in context, which is emphatically not a ranked feed.
comment on [Meta] the Zepbound rule is doing its job and people should stop complaining in c/tirzepatide · 560 points · 7 months ago
2.5mg is a four-week starting dose, not a maintenance dose. Worth being precise since people search these threads.
comment on genuine question about ApoB that I am slightly embarrassed to ask in c/bloodwork · 440 points · 7 months ago
Not convinced by the attribution. Weight loss alone moves that marker and you have no way to separate the two.
comment on [Results] 67 weeks, 10kg, and dual agonist was the hard part in c/tirzepatide · 115 points · 7 months ago
The four-week interval in the label is a minimum. Nothing about the pharmacology requires you to step on schedule, and the trials stepped on a calendar because trials have to.
comment on [Discussion] we are measuring SURPASS at the wrong time and calling it noise in c/tirzepatide · 10 points · 8 months ago
The step schedule question, answered properly, because it comes up weekly.
The label sets a minimum interval of four weeks between increases. That is a floor on how fast you may go, and it exists because tolerability, not efficacy, is what limits most people. There is nothing in the pharmacology that says you must increase at four weeks, or at eight, or ever.
What decides it in practice is whether the effect you want is still there. If appetite is quiet and the trend is going the right way, the dose is doing its job. If both have genuinely gone flat for six weeks or more, that is a conversation worth having with someone who knows your history.
comment on [Lab] 8th independent test on QST — 98.6% on a claimed 98.5%, and the trend is the interesting part in c/tirzepatide · -18 points · 9 months ago
Same experience with the appetite effect being flatter across the week rather than front-loaded.
comment on three years of bloodwork threads, summarised so you do not have to read them in c/bloodwork · 9 points · 9 months ago
Time of day, fasting state, hydration and recent exercise all move common markers. Standardising the draw conditions is free and it removes most of the apparent variability.
comment on [Question] is 99.3% actually fine or am I being sold a rounding error in c/tirzepatide · 71 points · 9 months ago
Appetite effect for me is flat across seven days. On sema it was a wave. Same person, different molecule.
comment on [Lab] 20th independent test on FGP — 98.6% on a claimed 98.0%, and the trend is the interesting part in c/cagrilintide · 7 points · 9 months ago
the monotherapy numbers are modest and that is not the point
comment on [Lab] 20th independent test on FGP — 98.6% on a claimed 98.0%, and the trend is the interesting part in c/cagrilintide · 16 points · 9 months ago
The honest state of the evidence on this board, since somebody should write it down.
Published clinical data exists and is genuinely interesting, particularly in combination. Independent purity data from members is thin — a handful of results across the whole site, against hundreds for the older molecules. Nothing containing this compound is approved as a standalone product, and research-use-only material is not approved for human use.
What follows practically: buy small if you buy at all, test what you get and post the result, and treat confident rankings against established compounds as the extrapolation they are. The board gets better as the log fills, and right now the log is nearly empty.
comment on perimenopause — my 15-week log, condensed into one table in c/glp1women · -24 points · 9 months ago
iron and ferritin questions come up here more than anywhere else on the site
comment on stalled for 15 weeks at 15mg and I refuse to panic this time in c/bloodwork · 14 points · 9 months ago
Correction: that marker is reported in different units by different labs, which explains the tenfold difference you are seeing.
comment on does SELECT actually matter or is it forum lore at this point in c/trialwatch · 232 points · 10 months ago
Left up and flaired Trial Data. The publication is linked rather than the coverage, which is what we ask for.
comment on three years of SURMOUNT threads, summarised so you do not have to read them in c/trialwatch · -20 points · 10 months ago
the confidence interval is the finding, the point estimate is the headline
comment on the STEP thing finally clicked for me and I want to write it down in c/trialwatch · 16 points · 11 months ago
Small fix — that was the cardiovascular outcomes trial, so weight was a secondary endpoint and the population was different.
comment on [Question] ApoB — what am I missing here in c/bloodwork · 20 points · 11 months ago
Small fix — a reference interval is not a treatment target, and the post above uses them interchangeably.
comment on [Discussion] the endpoint advice in here is 3 years out of date in c/trialwatch · 53 points · 12 months ago
Right — trial participants get structured support. Comparing yourself to a trial mean is comparing across two different interventions.
comment on [Meta] the FLOW rule is doing its job and people should stop complaining in c/trialwatch · 98 points · 1 year ago
Left up and flaired Trial Data. The publication is linked rather than the coverage, which is what we ask for.
comment on A1c — 9 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/bloodwork · 50 points · 1 year ago
Agreed on assay changes. A lab switching platforms between your draws is invisible unless you ask.
comment on stalled for 6 weeks at 1.7mg and I refuse to panic this time in c/bloodwork · 131 points · 1 year ago
Disagree with reading anything into that.
Disagreeing with this bit: that change is confounded by the weight loss itself and cannot be attributed.
comment on reading 15mg threads from 2024 and half of it aged badly in c/tirzepatide · 18 points · 1 year ago
This matches mine. Milder muscle cramps than I expected, and what there was settled inside a fortnight of each step.
comment on [Discussion] we are measuring Mounjaro at the wrong time and calling it noise in c/tirzepatide · -50 points · 1 year ago
the trials titrated on a calendar, real people titrate on symptoms
comment on baseline labs: the version I wish someone had shown me in week 1 in c/bloodwork · 34 points · 1 year ago
That is a non-fasting value and the interval you are comparing it against is a fasting one.
Agreed — and standardising the draw conditions is the cheapest improvement available.
comment on ferritin — 15 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/bloodwork · 71 points · 1 year ago
What did the repeat show?
comment on [PSA] GIP is not what most of this community thinks it is in c/tirzepatide · 145 points · 1 year ago
29kg over 94 weeks, never went past 10mg, and food noise stayed mild the whole way. Posting because the loud threads are all 15mg.
comment on stalled for 18 weeks at 12.5mg and I refuse to panic this time in c/tirzepatide · 10 points · 1 year ago
Small fix: SURMOUNT is the obesity programme, SURPASS is the type-2 programme. They are different endpoints and the numbers do not transfer.
comment on [Discussion] can we stop arguing about lipids until somebody posts a number in c/bloodwork · 164 points · 1 year ago
Brought the whole set to my clinician rather than one flagged value. Completely different conversation.
comment on help me understand SURMOUNT, I have read the wiki twice in c/trialwatch · 126 points · 1 year ago
Correction: SURMOUNT is the obesity programme and SURPASS is the diabetes one. The figure you quoted belongs to the other one.
comment on how much of what we believe about dual agonist actually comes from GIP threads in c/tirzepatide · 13 points · 1 year ago
hold the dose that works, the ladder is not a leaderboard