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c/trialwatch·posted 10 months ago by u/rulebook_rachael

does SELECT actually matter or is it forum lore at this point

Trial Data Receipts ×2 Long Haul ×3 Well Actually ×3

Asking properly rather than in a comment on somebody else’s thread: does SELECT actually matter or is it forum lore at this point.

Compared myself to a trial mean for about six months before realising the trial arm had dietitian contact every fortnight.

The discontinuation numbers were the most useful thing in the paper for me and they were in a supplementary table.

Went looking for the registered protocol to see whether the endpoint had changed. It had not, which was reassuring and worth checking.

Ask me anything specific. Anything general I will probably get wrong.

8,735 up / 3,040 down74% upvoted51 commentsid 4ov6pd29 Sep 2025

51 comments

17 in this archive, depth 4

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/receptor_bias_rick965 points·10 months ago

On means, which this board treats as targets and which are nothing of the sort.

A reported mean body weight change is the centre of a distribution that in these trials is very wide. Substantial numbers of participants did much better, and substantial numbers did considerably worse while remaining on the drug and in the analysis.

Quoting the mean as an expectation therefore misleads in both directions: it makes ordinary results look like failures and it makes exceptional results look normal. If a paper publishes the distribution — and several do, in the appendix — look at that instead. It is far more informative than the number in the abstract.

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u/cloudy_vial_carol406 points·10 months ago

That is the 68-week readout, not the 72-week one. Different trial, different duration.

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u/anders_vermeulen673 points·10 months ago

Right — trial participants get structured support. Comparing yourself to a trial mean is comparing across two different interventions.

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u/valeria_karlsen366 points·10 months ago

The registered protocol is public. Comparing the registered primary endpoint with the reported one is a two-minute check and it is how outcome switching gets caught.

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u/emil_agyeman434 points·10 months ago

Is that intention-to-treat or completers?

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u/forest_plot_fionaMOD232 points·10 months ago

Left up and flaired Trial Data. The publication is linked rather than the coverage, which is what we ask for.

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u/annika_fonseca88 points·10 months ago

Agreed. Half the arguments on this site are two people quoting different trials at each other without noticing.

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u/naomi_ekstrom314 points·10 months ago

Left up and flaired Trial Data.

Disagreeing with this line: that is a relative reduction and the absolute numbers are considerably less dramatic.

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u/adaeze_weiss217 points·10 months ago

Yes — the interval is the finding. A point estimate with a wide interval is a hypothesis in a nice font.

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u/piotr_bruun215 points·10 months ago

Push back: an open-label extension tells you about the people who stayed. That is a different question.

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u/rina_bergstrom168 points·10 months ago

The press release said that; the publication says something more hedged. Worth reading both.

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u/formulary_fighterappeals334 points·10 months ago

Yes. The appendix tables are where the subgroup and the adverse event detail actually live.

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u/ms_fragmenter277 points·10 months ago

Read a press release and the publication three months apart. The hedging in the second one was substantial.

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u/cold_chromatogram31193 points·10 months ago

Read a press release and the publication three months apart.

This is the distinction that would end about half the arguments on this board.

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u/ferran_dahlberg213 points·10 months ago

phase 2 finds a dose, phase 3 measures the effect

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u/rulebook_rachaelOPmod · c/meta-11 points·10 months ago

Correcting myself upthread: I gave the completer figure and labelled it intention-to-treat.

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u/renal_outcomes_rnephro-curious1 point·10 months ago

read the endpoint before you read the headline

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