The title is the argument: SURPASS — 15 things I got wrong before I got it right. Here is the rest of it. Discontinuation rates are a tolerability result. A trial with…
u/cloudy_vial_carol
Cloudy after reconstitution is a discard, not a debate.
member · joined 12 Jan 2025
comment on FLOW got published and nobody in here is talking about eGFR slope in c/trialwatch · 1 points · 2 days ago
discontinuation rate is a result, not a footnote
comment on reconstituted vial left out for five hours — bin it or not in c/coldchain · 96 points · 3 days ago
the actual decision rule is visual plus time. cloudy or particulate after it has had time to dissolve is a discard and not a debate. clear and inside its window is fine.
comment on [Paper] SURMOUNT-4 withdrawal arm, read the appendix not the abstract in c/trialwatch · 1 points · 4 days ago
Spent an evening with the appendix tables and found the subgroup detail that the entire thread had been speculating about.
comment on [Question] why is the sequence written four different ways across vendors in c/bpc157 · 2 points · 5 days ago
a fifteen-residue peptide is easy to make and easy to make badly
comment on [Failure] lost £340 to a group buy. posting so somebody else does not. in c/darkspot · 26 points · 11 days ago
Most of what gets posted here is procedural rather than dramatic: a step skipped, a document not requested, a temperature not considered, a pace chosen out of impatience.
comment on [Announcement] sponsor disclosure, in full, again, because someone asked in c/meta · 3 points · 11 days ago
I would not archive earlier.
Adding the practical note — the formula is published and you can reproduce the ordering yourself.
comment on [Discussion] the weight conversation drowns out the glycaemic one in c/t2dglp1 · 26 points · 12 days ago
Not convinced. Hypoglycaemia risk from this class alone is low; the risk you are describing comes from the combination.
comment on [Lab] identity confirmed but net peptide content was 71% in c/bpc157 · 4 points · 15 days ago
Has anyone posted an independent result on that batch?
comment on [Discussion] should c/progresspics stay text-only forever (yes) in c/meta · 17 points · 19 days ago
Which rule specifically, and which part of it?
comment on [Meta] proposal — a flair for FLOW posts in c/trialwatch · 16 points · 24 days ago
Why comparing across trials almost never works, with the specific failure modes.
Different populations: an obesity programme and a diabetes programme enrol different people with different baseline characteristics. Different endpoints: body weight change, glycaemic control and cardiovascular events are not convertible. Different durations: 68 weeks and 72 weeks are not the same, and the curves have not flattened by either.
Different analysis populations: one paper reports intention-to-treat, another emphasises completers. Different support: some trial designs include structured lifestyle contact that no member of this board receives.
Stack those and the "X beats Y" tables that circulate here are comparing five things at once and attributing the difference to the molecule.
comment on week 23 check-in — 6kg down, early fullness manageable, one thing confusing me in c/darkspot · 1 points · 1 months ago
Why this board exists, stated once, since new members find it and are surprised.
Every other community surface on this site is a record of things that worked, because people post when they have something to show. That produces an archive with a systematic bias, and somebody at week three reads it and concludes that their difficult month is unusual.
This board is the counterweight. The rule is that nobody gets judged, that corrections stay up, and that the failures are written down with the same care as the successes. It is the least-visited part of the site and the part I would keep if I could only keep one.
comment on three years of small molecule threads, summarised so you do not have to read them in c/orforglipron · 5 points · 2 months ago
Yes — nothing containing this is approved anywhere, and the threads keep forgetting it.
comment on [Meta] the hypoglycaemia rule is doing its job and people should stop complaining in c/t2dglp1 · 13 points · 2 months ago
What else is in the regimen?
comment on why does nobody talk about non-peptide in c/orforglipron · 3 points · 2 months ago
Agreed that phase 3 is where the comparison becomes fair. Everything before it is inference.
comment on the STEP thing finally clicked for me and I want to write it down in c/trialwatch · 12 points · 2 months ago
Why comparing across trials almost never works, with the specific failure modes.
Different populations: an obesity programme and a diabetes programme enrol different people with different baseline characteristics. Different endpoints: body weight change, glycaemic control and cardiovascular events are not convertible. Different durations: 68 weeks and 72 weeks are not the same, and the curves have not flattened by either.
Different analysis populations: one paper reports intention-to-treat, another emphasises completers. Different support: some trial designs include structured lifestyle contact that no member of this board receives.
Stack those and the "X beats Y" tables that circulate here are comparing five things at once and attributing the difference to the molecule.
comment on how much of what we believe about what went wrong actually comes from failure threads in c/darkspot · 30 points · 4 months ago
somebody will read this at the point you were at, and it will help
comment on [PSA] regret is not what most of this community thinks it is in c/darkspot · 104 points · 4 months ago
A public correction of a wrong accusation is worth more to the record than the original report, because it is the thing that keeps the rest of the archive trustworthy.
comment on someone explain FLOW to me like I have not read a paper in years in c/trialwatch · 78 points · 5 months ago
Argued for a week about a result and then read the limitations section, which conceded most of my opponent’s point.
comment on regulatory is the most under-discussed thing on this board in c/bpc157 · 18 points · 6 months ago
identity, quantity, stability — three separate questions
comment on the ATTAIN question that gets asked weekly, answered properly in c/orforglipron · 18 points · 6 months ago
Spent an evening reading about small-molecule agonism at a peptide receptor. Genuinely interesting engineering.
comment on 5 months in and failure is still the thing I get wrong in c/darkspot · 1 points · 6 months ago
Right, and stopping for money reasons is not a failure of anything. It is a budget.
comment on what would you tell week-1 you about glycaemic control in c/t2dglp1 · 1 points · 7 months ago
metformin and an incretin agonist are not in competition
comment on [Question] how do you actually verify wiki in c/meta · 1 points · 7 months ago
What would the new rule do to the vendor evidence standard?
comment on SURPASS — 12 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/trialwatch · 148 points · 7 months ago
Why comparing across trials almost never works, with the specific failure modes.
Different populations: an obesity programme and a diabetes programme enrol different people with different baseline characteristics. Different endpoints: body weight change, glycaemic control and cardiovascular events are not convertible. Different durations: 68 weeks and 72 weeks are not the same, and the curves have not flattened by either.
Different analysis populations: one paper reports intention-to-treat, another emphasises completers. Different support: some trial designs include structured lifestyle contact that no member of this board receives.
Stack those and the "X beats Y" tables that circulate here are comparing five things at once and attributing the difference to the molecule.
comment on [Lab] 15th independent test on WXT — 99.4% on a claimed 98.5%, and the trend is the interesting part in c/orforglipron · 2 points · 8 months ago
Milligram comparisons across molecule classes are meaningless. Potency is a property of the molecule at its receptor, not of the number on the label.
comment on three years of ranking threads, summarised so you do not have to read them in c/meta · 25 points · 9 months ago
modmail first, always, and the thread second
comment on does SELECT actually matter or is it forum lore at this point in c/trialwatch · 406 points · 10 months ago
That is the 68-week readout, not the 72-week one. Different trial, different duration.
comment on [Results] 46 weeks, 21kg, and orforglipron was the hard part in c/orforglipron · 1 points · 1 year ago
Analytically this is a small-molecule identity and purity problem, not a peptide one. The methods, the impurity classes and the reference standards are all different.
comment on [Discussion] the glycaemic control advice in here is 2 years out of date in c/t2dglp1 · -8 points · 1 year ago
postprandial excursions are where most of the improvement shows up first
comment on the lost money question that gets asked weekly, answered properly in c/darkspot · 71 points · 1 year ago
the fridge failure story happens every summer
comment on [Meta] proposal — a flair for rodent data posts in c/bpc157 · 10 points · 1 year ago
Small fix — fifteen residues, not seventeen. The sequence is public and easy to check.
comment on what went wrong is the most under-discussed thing on this board in c/darkspot · 160 points · 1 year ago
Small correction — the shop in that story has no independent testing on file at all, which is different from having a bad record.
comment on SURPASS — 11 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/trialwatch · 1 points · 1 year ago
Intention-to-treat analyses everybody randomised regardless of what they did afterwards. Completer analyses only those who finished. The second is systematically more flattering and both are legitimate if labelled.
comment on [Question] how do you actually verify sequence in c/bpc157 · 3 points · 1 year ago
the human evidence is thin and the rodent evidence is not
comment on [Vendor] GL Biochem vs JEEP on the same compound, same month — both cleared 97.0% in c/darkspot · 117 points · 1 year ago
I would not generalise from one bad month to a rule. The rest of your process sounds fine.
comment on SURPASS — 15 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/trialwatch · 54 points · 1 year ago
Quoted a figure here confidently, got asked whether it was ITT, went and checked, and it was not. Learned something.
comment on SURPASS — 15 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/trialwatch · -30 points · 1 year ago
Open-label extensions lose their randomisation.
This is the distinction that would end about half the arguments on this board.
comment on SURPASS — 15 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/trialwatch · 131 points · 1 year ago
check who the comparator was before you compare anything
comment on my fasting insulin moved and I cannot work out whether metformin is why in c/t2dglp1 · 263 points · 1 year ago
The order things move in, since nobody explains it and it worries people.
Postprandial excursions generally respond earliest. Variability tends to narrow before the average does, which is visible on a sensor and invisible on a lab result. Fasting glucose is often the laggard, and A1c — being a three-month average — is the last thing to reflect anything.
So a month in which the sensor looks better and the fasting number has not moved is the ordinary sequence, not a contradiction. Knowing that in advance would have saved me a quarter of unnecessary worry, which is why it is worth writing down.