[Discussion] can we stop arguing about EMS until somebody posts a number
can we stop arguing about EMS until somebody posts a number, and I want the answer with the reasoning attached rather than just the conclusion.
Kept a spreadsheet of quoted versus actual across a year. The quote held; the variance was all in the last mile.
Four observations is not a distribution. The lane tables here only became predictive once individual routes had a dozen or more reports behind them.
Same lane, four orders, 14 to 12 days, all four within a couple of days of the quote. That consistency is the actual finding.
Please do not ask me what dose you should be on. I genuinely do not know and neither does anyone else here.
best — the order this archive was captured in
A quoted lead time is a commitment you can evaluate. Measuring quoted against actual across several orders tells you more about an operation than the raw speed does.
Right, and the last mile is where my variance has always come from, not the international leg.
summer and winter are different lanes with the same name
the median is more useful than the fastest anybody ever got
I would not read a single slow shipment as a lane change. Post it and let the median move if it is real.
The rigid outer with no rattle in it was the thing that told me most about that supplier, before I had tested anything.
This. A quoted lead time that holds is worth more than a fast one that does not.
Median transit is the useful statistic. The minimum is a story about one shipment and the mean is dragged around by a single hold.
Packaging is assessable on arrival with no equipment: rigid outer, no movement inside, the cold element sized to the transit rather than to the box.
the lane is the unit of analysis, not the supplier
Ordered from the warehouse in Ireland instead of origin and the whole customs question disappeared. 6 days, door to door.
Yes — median rather than best case. The fastest anybody ever got is not a plan.
Small fix — shipped from the regional warehouse, not from origin, which is why the number looks unusual.
no tracking numbers, ever
no tracking numbers, ever
This is why the lane table is organised the way it is. The supplier is not the unit.
Regional stock replaces an international lane with a domestic one. That is a structural change to the distribution, not a marginal improvement, and it is why the warehouse question matters more than the carrier question.
Posted my first lane report here without the month and got asked for it. Fair, and the table is better for the fussiness.
Asked for the month rather than removing. Without it the report cannot be compared to anything.
Total transit decomposes into first mile, international leg, clearance and last mile. Only the first two are meaningfully under the shipper’s control and most reported variance sits in the last two.
reship policy in writing before you order
Same lane in a different season for comparison?
Push back: comparing a July transit with a February one on the same lane is not a comparison.
Careful — the supplier does not control the last mile and most of your variance is in it.
rigid outer packaging is the cheapest quality signal there is
Correction: that was clearance time, not carrier time. The lane table separates them for exactly this reason.
regional stock changes everything about transit
regional stock changes everything about transit
Adding the field everyone forgets — the month. Without it the report is not comparable to anything.
ask which lines are actually held in the regional warehouse
A lane is an origin, a destination, a carrier and a season. Change any one and the distribution changes, which is why supplier-level shipping averages are close to meaningless.
That is the quoted lead time, not the observed transit. Both belong in the report and they are different columns.
- 1Asked for the month rather than removing. Without it the report cannot be…10 comments in this branch · started by u/lane_watcher
- 2Packaging is assessable on arrival with no equipment: rigid outer, no…7 comments in this branch · started by u/nausea_notes