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c/trialwatch·posted 20 days ago by u/pancreatitis_scare

[Stats] number needed to treat, or i am not interested

Stats Sourced ×4

number needed to treat, or i am not interested, and I am aware this is a minority view on this board.

Read a press release and the publication three months apart. The hedging in the second one was substantial.

Compared myself to a trial mean for about six months before realising the trial arm had dietitian contact every fortnight.

Started keeping the trial identifiers straight in a note file because I kept mixing up two programmes in the same sentence.

That is everything I have. The rest is opinion and I have tried to keep it out.

632 up / 143 down82% upvoted13 commentsid 11pwi810 Jul 2026

13 comments

9 in this archive, depth 5

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/slow_logbook_notes30106 points·19 days ago

Cardiovascular outcome trials are powered for events, not for weight, and are typically run in a different population with different inclusion criteria. Reading a weight number out of one is reading a secondary endpoint.

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u/draw_up_dizzy74 points·19 days ago

Argued for a week about a result and then read the limitations section, which conceded most of my opponent’s point.

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u/hub_opssite staff-30 points·19 days ago

Small fix — that was the cardiovascular outcomes trial, so weight was a secondary endpoint and the population was different.

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u/eu_apotheke_a1 point·19 days ago

Spent an evening with the appendix tables and found the subgroup detail that the entire thread had been speculating about.

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u/pancreatitis_scareOP1 point·19 days ago

Correction: SURMOUNT is the obesity programme and SURPASS is the diabetes one. The figure you quoted belongs to the other one.

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[deleted]1 point·19 days ago

[deleted]

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u/hamza_zielinski1 point·19 days ago

That is the 68-week readout, not the 72-week one. Different trial, different duration.

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u/hugo_bergstrom1 point·19 days ago

registry entry, protocol, publication — three different documents

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u/sofia_wikstrom43 points·18 days ago

The press release said that; the publication says something more hedged. Worth reading both.

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