[Discussion] phase 2 is doing more work than we give it credit for
phase 2 is doing more work than we give it credit for. Change my mind, genuinely — I have no stake in being right about this. The standing caveat, written out properly because it keeps getting compressed into a footnote. Nothing containing this compound is approved by any regulator. Research-use-only material is not…
Phase 2 estimates effect and finds a dose range. Phase 3 estimates it precisely in a bigger population and catches what phase 2 was too small to see. Treating them as the same tier of evidence is the recurring error here.
Correction: TRIUMPH is the phase 3 programme. The number you are quoting is from the phase 2 readout, which is a different trial.
Left up. It reads the phase 2 paper carefully and it is honest about the intervals.
small trial, big effect, wide error bars
the TRIUMPH programme is still running, so anything definitive is premature
What is the source for that figure — the published paper or a summary of it?
Which phase 2 arm are you quoting, and at what week?