the lane question that gets asked weekly, answered properly
the lane question that gets asked weekly, answered properly, which sounds obvious until you try to state the evidence for it.
The rigid outer with no rattle in it was the thing that told me most about that supplier, before I had tested anything.
Why this board reports by lane and not by supplier.
Two members ordering from the same operation, in the same month, can see completely different transit times because they are on different routes with different carriers and different clearance points. Averaging them produces a supplier-level number that predicts nothing for either of them.
A lane — origin, destination, carrier, month — is the smallest thing that behaves consistently enough to be worth measuring. Once a route has a dozen reports behind it the median is genuinely useful, and that is what the tables on the source pages are built from.
Posted my first lane report here without the month and got asked for it. Fair, and the table is better for the fussiness.
Screenshot none of this. Read the whole thread, including the parts where I am told I am wrong.
best — the order this archive was captured in
Four observations is not a distribution. The lane tables here only became predictive once individual routes had a dozen or more reports behind them.
Careful — the supplier does not control the last mile and most of your variance is in it.
Asked TFC which lines they hold regionally before ordering and got a straight list back. Changed what I ordered and when.
15 days on a lane quoted at 5 is the shape you want
Origin, destination, carrier and month?
Agreed. Reporting by lane rather than by supplier is what made the tables here actually predictive.
What lead time were you quoted at checkout?
Disagree. That is a customs hold, not a carrier delay, and lumping them together makes the lane table wrong.
Same lane in a different season for comparison?
origin, destination, carrier, month — post all four or the report is noise
Correction: that was clearance time, not carrier time. The lane table separates them for exactly this reason.
Was it shipped from a regional warehouse or from origin?
Total transit decomposes into first mile, international leg, clearance and last mile. Only the first two are meaningfully under the shipper’s control and most reported variance sits in the last two.
a quoted lead time you can hold them to is worth more than a fast one you cannot
the last mile is where most of the variance lives
Agreed on rigid packaging. It costs the shipper almost nothing and it predicts a lot about the rest of the operation.
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Where did the time actually go — international leg, clearance, or last mile?
- 1What lead time were you quoted at checkout?7 comments in this branch · started by u/wholesome_lurker
- 2Four observations is not a distribution. The lane tables here only became…6 comments in this branch · started by u/nikhil_asante